Inicio / Económicas / Análisis sobre los efectos de la salida del Reino Unido de la Unión Europea en la República Dominicana

Análisis sobre los efectos de la salida del Reino Unido de la Unión Europea en la República Dominicana

 

Nereyda Feliz

nereyda.feliz@gmai10cba8e3017a31f5866b2d615c038566_620x412-620x250l.com

El Banco Central de la República Dominicana (BCRD), en interés de mantener debidamente informados a los agentes económicos y a la ciudadanía en sentido general, con la finalidad de evitar interpretaciones inadecuadas que pudieran generar incertidumbre innecesaria en el entorno económico nacional, particularmente en el mercado cambiario, presenta un análisis sucinto sobre el potencial impacto de la salida del Reino Unido de la Unión Europea (Brexit) en la economía dominicana.

Como es de conocimiento público, el pasado 23 de junio, los ciudadanos del Reino Unido decidieron mediante referéndum, con el 52% de los votos a favor, que su país saliera de la Unión Europea (UE). Si bien este resultado ha causado volatilidades en los mercados internacionales, de manera particular en la libra esterlina, no menos cierto es que el mismo no tiene efectividad inmediata, ya que Reino Unido seguirá siendo miembro de la UE, hasta que se acuerde y formalice con las instancias correspondientes un tratado de salida, a partir del cual es que sería factible prever la ejecución de dicha decisión.

El procedimiento a seguir ahora es que el Primer Ministro del Reino Unido, invocando el artículo 50 del Tratado de Lisboa -según el cual “todo Estado miembro podrá decidir, de conformidad con sus normas constitucionales, retirarse de la Unión”- proceda a informar al Consejo Europeo, la intención del Reino Unido de retirarse de la UE. Una vez agotada esta fase, los dos bloques negociarían un acuerdo sobre cómo se llevaría a cabo dicha salida, que deberá ser aprobado tanto por el Consejo como por el Parlamento Europeo.

En ese sentido, como destacamos precedentemente, Reino Unido seguiría siendo miembro de la Unión Europea hasta tanto entre en vigor el acuerdo de retirada, cuyo plazo podría extenderse hasta dos años. Por las razones señaladas, una gran parte de los intercambios comerciales del Reino Unido con la UE y el resto del mundo tendrán que ser necesariamente renegociados, de 2 conformidad con las reglas de la Organización Mundial del Comercio (OMC), de la cual la República Dominicana es signataria desde su fundación.

Reacción de los bancos centrales Cabe destacar que ante esta decisión del Brexit, el Banco de Inglaterra anunció que cuenta con un plan de contingencia orientado a mitigar cualquier efecto adverso, disponiendo de más de 250 mil millones de libras esterlinas (aproximadamente US$335 mil millones) para proveer liquidez a sus mercados, si fuese necesario.

Del mismo modo, aseguró que el sistema financiero se encuentra bien capitalizado y supera ampliamente los niveles exigidos ante escenarios de estrés, incluso mayores al actual. Por otro lado, se espera que el Banco Central Europeo continúe con su política monetaria expansiva, en sus esfuerzos por impulsar la actividad económica en los países de la Zona Euro y reducir el desempleo.

En cuanto al Banco de la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos, en el marco de este nuevo escenario del Brexit, se han reducido las expectativas del mercado sobre un posible aumento de tasas de interés, pues los analistas esperan que la FED postergue por más tiempo la decisión de subir su tasa de referencia, a fin de atenuar los efectos que pudiese tener el fortalecimiento del dólar estadounidense sobre el crecimiento económico de dicha nación.

Posibles efectos en la República Dominicana Tomando en consideración el limitado intercambio comercial entre el Reino Unido y la República Dominicana, así como el plazo que conllevará implementar la salida del Reino Unido de la Unión Europea, desde el BCRD hemos estimado que el Brexit no tendría un impacto económico significativo en la RD en el corto plazo. Para sustentar este planteamiento, de que serían limitados los efectos del Brexit en nuestra economía, presentamos a continuación la importancia relativa de las exportaciones, del turismo, las remesas y de la inversión extranjera directa entre ambas naciones.

En el año 2015, las exportaciones de bienes de República Dominicana hacia Reino Unido representaron 1.8% del total exportado, equivalentes a US$169.8 millones. De estos, US$106.5 millones corresponden a bananos y plátanos, siendo la RD un proveedor importante del nicho de este producto orgánico; y unos US$6 millones a mangos y aguacates, entre otros.

En el caso de las importaciones, éstas representaron un 0.89% del total del año pasado, ascendiendo a US$149.7 millones, continuando el saldo comercial favorable para la República Dominicana que se ha venido registrando desde el año 2010 a la fecha. Independientemente de lo antes expuesto, no habrían razones para pensar que este intercambio comercial se vea afectado a corto o mediano plazo, ya que se mantiene vigente todo el acceso otorgado entre el Reino Unido y la República Dominicana, mediante el Acuerdo de Asociación Económica entre CARIFORUM y la Comunidad Europea (EPA), el cual facilita el acceso preferencial de nuestros productos de exportación al mercado europeo.

En ese tenor es importante señalar, que durante el período de transición, que tomaría cerca de dos años, el sector privado y el Gobierno dominicano tendrán un plazo adecuado para tomar las medidas correctivas y realizar las negociaciones que garanticen que se mantenga el acceso de nuestros productos al mercado del Reino Unido. Por tanto, reiteramos a los agentes económicos y al sector exportador que existe suficiente espacio para consolidar las relaciones comerciales entre ambos países, ya que no se vislumbran razones cuantitativas ni cualitativas que pudiesen afectar por tal acontecimiento el buen desempeño económico de la República Dominicana.

En lo concerniente al turismo, en el año 2015 nos visitaron 143,625 turistas desde Reino Unido, equivalentes a 2.6% del total de turistas que visitaron la República Dominicana, generando divisas por aproximadamente unos US$154 millones. No obstante, como secuela del Brexit, es probable que se produzca cierta fluctuación temporal del turismo proveniente del Reino Unido debido a las posibles condiciones adversas que se pudiesen presentar en ese país. Sin embargo, los efectos para el sector turístico, que creció en 8.9% en el 2015, no serían de una magnitud considerable, dada la diversificación de la procedencia de los turistas, mayoritariamente desde los Estados Unidos, Canadá, otros países de Europa y Suramérica.

Por otro lado, durante el año 2015 las remesas provenientes del Reino Unido representaron un 0.2% del total de remesas formales recibidas, ascendiendo a US$6.4 millones. En este sentido, es importante destacar, que Estados Unidos es la principal fuente de las remesas recibidas en el país, con una participación de 71.1% en el total de las mismas, seguido de España, con un 14.3% para el período analizado. A su vez, en el período 2010-2015, el flujo neto de inversión extranjera directa (IED) desde Reino Unido al país acumuló US$90.5 millones, representando un 0.7% del total neto de la IED percibida por la República Dominicana en ese quinquenio.

Es oportuno traer a colación, que los flujos de IED dependen en mayor medida, tanto de la 4 estabilidad macroeconómica como de la seguridad jurídica de los países receptores y no exclusivamente de los acuerdos comerciales, por lo que no se avizora una interrupción de estos flujos en el futuro inmediato.

Conclusiones Como se infiere de lo anteriormente planteado el proceso del Brexit no afectaría significativamente la economía dominicana, por varias razones: Por un lado, los flujos comerciales entre República Dominicana y Reino Unido son relativamente bajos; y por otro lado, todos los acuerdos comerciales mantienen su vigencia hasta que los mismos sean renegociados en el proceso transición previsto en alrededor de dos años. De ahí que más bien, el Brexit podría en cierto modo representar una oportunidad para que el país amplíe sus relaciones comerciales y nichos de mercado, tanto con la Unión Europea como con el Reino Unido.

Desde el punto de vista macroeconómico y los posibles efectos derivados de la volatilidad de los mercados internacionales, la República Dominicana cuenta con fundamentos macroeconómicos fuertes, así como con reservas internacionales por encima de los US$5,000 millones, que permiten garantizar la estabilidad relativa en la tasa de cambio, sin alterar la senda de alto crecimiento con baja inflación alcanzada por la economía dominicana en los últimos años, reforzada por cuentas fiscales y externas en proceso de consolidación.

Por el momento, de continuar la tendencia alcista del oro como activo de refugio debido a la incertidumbre provocada por el Brexit, así como la tendencia a la baja del precio del petróleo como consecuencia del fortalecimiento del dólar estadounidense, es previsible augurar que el resultado neto que se derive de este proceso resulte en gran medida favorable para el buen desempeño de la economía dominicana.

El Banco Central de la República Dominicana se mantendrá vigilante de los desarrollos internacionales derivados del proceso del “BREXIT”, a fin de mantener informada a la opinión pública y reaccionar de manera oportuna.

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